Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka
When: 11:30
Where: Japan J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse currently hold 9th place in the table with 25 points from 19 games. The team shows a balanced record of 26 goals scored and 26 conceded, indicating some inconsistency. In the last five matches they recorded just one win, one draw, and three losses. Offensively, they repeatedly manage to create chances and score an average of 1.37 goals per game. Defensively, however, significant weaknesses appear with an average of 1.37 goals conceded, which does not inspire stability. More than half of the games end with goals on both sides, suggesting open matches. Despite occasional goals, Shimizu favors a rather offensive style of play but concedes quite a bit at the back.
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka are in 12th place with 24 points, just behind Shimizu. They present a slightly negative goal difference of 23 scored and 27 conceded goals. Their recent form matches Shimizu's: also only one win, one draw, and three losses in the last five games. Offensively, they are a bit weaker with an average of 1.21 goals per game, and defensively they show weaknesses with 1.42 goals conceded per match. Notably, only 37% of Gamba’s matches have goals from both teams, indicating less spectacular, more defensive encounters. The recent serious injuries in the central defense are a major problem and could further destabilize their defense.
Injuries
While Shimizu S-Pulse is almost fully fit, Gamba Osaka struggles with several important players injured: among others, Kanji Okunuki (impingement syndrome), Welton (torn ankle ligament), and especially Genta Miura (ACL tear) are out. The absence of Miura, a central defender, significantly weakens their defense. The loss of Welton also greatly affects Gamba’s offensive play and team structure.
Head-to-Head Matches
The direct encounters between Shimizu S-Pulse and Gamba Osaka in recent years have been characterized by few goals and close games. In the last five meetings, there were never more than 2 goals per game, with three matches even ending under 1.5 goals. Both teams tend to be cautious and place great emphasis on defense, as mistakes are costly. The results vary without a clear favorite.
Match Prediction
Considering both teams' current poor form, the defensive problems especially at Gamba Osaka, and the historically low goal output in their direct matchups, we expect a cautious, tight game with few goals. Due to personnel absences, Gamba will likely play even more defensively, which may give Shimizu more space, but both teams have recently lacked convincing offensive actions to score many goals. The bookmaker odds confirm this assessment and foresee a low-scoring match. Therefore, we recommend the bet Double Chance Shimizu S-Pulse at odds of 1.38, as Shimizu at least has better conditions at home to not lose.
My tip: Double Chance Shimizu S-Pulse (1.38)
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