Genoa - Milan
When: 20:45
Where: Italy. Serie A
Genoa
Genoa currently occupy 13th place after 34 matches. With only 29 goals scored and 41 conceded, the team has a negative goal difference of -12. In the last five games, there was only one win, one draw, and three losses. Notably, the weak offense, which scores less than one goal per game on average, and the defense is prone to mistakes and conceding goals. The team struggles with creativity and transition play, which is especially evident against better-organized opponents.
Milan
Milan stand at a disappointing 9th place in the table with 54 points and a goal difference of +15 (53 goals scored, 38 conceded). Form is unstable, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches. The offense appears more threatening than Genoa's, but the defense also shows weaknesses, particularly against fast counterattacks. Despite the tactical deficiencies, Milan has higher-quality players and more experience.
Injuries
Genoa is troubled by numerous injuries, especially in the creative midfield and attack. Missing are, among others, Mario Balotelli (broken hand), Ruslan Malinovskyi (bruise), and Fabio Miretti (shoulder injury). Milan, on the other hand, currently seems free of injury concerns, which is a clear advantage for them.
Head-to-Head
The history of direct encounters between Genoa and Milan favors Milan, who have won three and drawn twice in the last five meetings. Genoa has not defeated Milan during this period. Especially recent matches with results such as 0:0 and 3:3 show that while Milan is favored, they also struggle to secure clear victories.
Match Prediction
Given Genoa’s offensive weakness, the absence of key creative players, and defensive gaps, combined with Milan’s unstable but qualitatively better squad, it is expected that Milan will leave the match as the winner. Both teams might face difficulties scoring many goals, but Milan should at least avoid defeat. Bookmakers see Milan as favorites with odds of 1.78, which presents a convincing bet based on this analysis.
My tip: Milan win (1.78)
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