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01.05.2025
  • Athletic - Manchester United
    When: 21:00
    Where: Europa League

    Athletic
    The Basques are currently experiencing one of their best seasons in recent years. In La Liga, they belong to the extended top group and are a force at home – in the ongoing Europa League competition, they have won every home game. I have looked at their recent performances: especially at San Mamés, they play aggressively, with high intensity and good pressing. Against Roma and Rangers, they have shown that they can turn around even deficits. The only downside: the absence of Oihan Sancet, their most goal-threating midfielder. This will limit their creativity, but the Williams brothers and Berenguer remain fiercely dangerous on the wings.

    Manchester United
    Undefeated internationally, but hardly competitive domestically anymore – that sums up the Red Devils’ season. While they are struggling in the Premier League, they deliver dramatic games with lots of spectacle in Europe. But what I saw in the second leg against Lyon was more chaos than control – three goals in seven minutes masked many structural problems. Injuries are plaguing the team massively: among others, Dalot, Martinez, and Diallo are missing, and de Ligt is doubtful. The defense in particular therefore looks improvised. It will be difficult to hold up away against such a strong home team.

    Injuries
    Athletic: Sancet (injured)
    Manchester United: Martinez, Dalot, Diallo, Heven, Zirkzee (all injured), de Ligt (doubtful)

    Direct Encounters
    No current reference through direct duels – the last serious comparison is more than ten years ago.

    Prediction for the game
    Athletic is flawless at home in the Europa League. Even without Sancet, they have proven that they can hold their own against strong opponents. United’s away form is not convincing – wins came only against significantly weaker opponents. I expect a physically intense game in which the Spaniards will apply pressure from the first minute. The injury-plagued defense of the English side could suffer greatly from this.

    My tip: Over 1.5 goals (1.38)
    Tip
  • Djurgarden – Chelsea
    When: 21:00
    Where: UEFA Europa Conference League

    Djurgarden
    Djurgarden is the surprise team of this Conference League season, but they are not a real sensation. On their way to the semifinals, they did not have to face opponents from the European top leagues. In their domestic league campaign, things are mixed: after five rounds, they have a meager seven points and the offense has been ineffective with only two goals scored. Additionally, there are many injuries – especially in the offense and midfield. I see a team that struggled to advance against opponents like Pafos or Rapid Vienna but will reach its limits at this level.

    Chelsea
    For Chelsea, this match is a must-win on the path to the title. The Londoners have recovered well from their first Conference League defeat in the previous round. I expect a lineup full of reserves again – not because they underestimate their opponents, but because the Premier League schedule is packed. Players like Palmer or Nkunku are likely to make the difference, even with this "B team." I have seen how confidently Chelsea performs in Europe, even when not all regulars are on the pitch. The quality is enough in this setup to clearly win against a lower-tier opponent like Djurgarden.

    Injuries
    Djurgarden: Absences of five key players, including wingers Zugelj and Fallenius, as well as midfield pillars Schüller and Öslund
    Chelsea: Possible absences of Malo Gusto and youth striker Deivid Washington; no other players reported missing

    Head-to-head
    No relevant direct confrontations between the two clubs so far.

    Match prediction
    Chelsea will take the game seriously, even if not all starters are on the field. Djurgarden will defend deep but will have major problems creating chances when in possession. Chelsea is likely to take control and capitalize on chances through individual quality. I do not expect a goal from Djurgarden, but at least two goals from the “Blues” who want to pave the way to the final with a clear first-leg victory.

    My tip: Under 3.5 goals (1.50)
    Tip
  • Betis - Fiorentina
    When: 21:00
    Where: UEFA Europa Conference League

    Betis has qualified for a European semi-final for the first time in the club's history and faces a Fiorentina side currently in very good form. The Spaniards advanced by defeating Vitória Guimarães, Gent, and Jagiellonia, with the experienced forward Cédric Bakambu shining with seven goals. Manuel Pellegrini's team is very strong at home, having won five of their last seven home games and will once again play boldly in front of their home fans.

    Betis
    Despite convincing performances, there are some absences. In defense Diego Llorente is missing, in midfield Marco Roca, and upfront the versatile Chimy Ávila. Nobél Mendy is doubtful. For the regular goalkeeper Adrián, Francisco Vieites will stand in goal as in the previous Conference League matches. Offensively, Betis relies on creativity through Isco, Lo Celso, and Fornals, while Bakambu operates as the target man up front. Tactically, it will likely be a 4-2-3-1, with much control in the midfield and play over the wings.

    Fiorentina
    The Italians arrive with a run of eight unbeaten games, including a convincing 3-0 win against Juventus as well as a 2-2 draw at Milan. Their form is good, but the team has to do without several players. Moise Kean is doubtful; Dodô, Bove, and Colpani are missing. Nevertheless, Fiorentina brings quality and experience – especially players like Gudmundsson, Beltrán, and Mândragora. Raffaele Palladino's team is expected to play a 3-5-2 formation and attempt to be dangerous through counterattacks and set pieces.

    Injuries
    Betis misses Ávila, Roca, and Llorente for sure, Mendy is doubtful. Fiorentina is without Bove, Dodô, Colpani; Kean is doubtful.

    Head-to-Head
    No official matches so far in UEFA competitions.

    Prediction
    Betis plays at home with a lot of confidence and has had more recovery time due to a longer break than Fiorentina, who last played on Sunday. Additionally, the Spaniards have a good home record. Fiorentina brings stability and form but does not always appear consistent away from home. I expect Betis to narrowly win the game with the support of their fans.

    My Tip: Betis win (1.75)
    Tip
  • Nottingham Forest - Brentford
    When: 8:30 PM
    Where: English Premier League

    Introduction
    On the final matchday of this long 34th Premier League matchday, Nottingham Forest host Brentford. Both teams still have realistic chances for European competitions. While the hosts are chasing the Champions League spots, Brentford hopes to participate in the Conference League. Accordingly, motivation is high on both sides.

    Nottingham Forest
    Forest is facing a decisive phase. The team lost the FA Cup semi-final against Man City, but the remaining league schedule is comparatively manageable. At home, Nottingham is very strong – with 9 wins in 16 home games. Defensive organization is a real highlight: no team has conceded fewer goals in home games. The only concern is the absence of Ola Aina; otherwise, almost all key players are available. Especially at the “City Ground,” Nuno Espírito Santo's team knows how to manage a result.

    Brentford
    The visitors are also in good form. Only one defeat in the last five games – including strong results against Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton, and Bournemouth. Coach Thomas Frank has formed a team that is particularly dangerous in transitions. Brentford prefers a waiting style and leaves the ball to the opponent – a style that overlaps with Nottingham's tactics. However, away performances are mixed: only 3 wins in 16 away games show that the “Bees” often struggle. In addition, Fábio Carvalho remains out, and I. Tiago and J. Dasilva are also unavailable.

    Injuries
    For Nottingham, only Ola Aina’s absence is noteworthy.
    For Brentford, Fábio Carvalho, I. Tiago, J. Dasilva, and possibly A. Hickey are still missing.

    Head-to-head encounters
    In the first leg, Nottingham won away 2-0. Overall, the record of recent direct encounters slightly favors Forest.

    Match prediction
    The hosts are extremely hard to beat at their own stadium. Defensive stability could be the key today, as Brentford struggles against compact opponents. Since both teams tend to play controlled and neither side will play with an open visor, I expect a close, tactically shaped game.

    My tip: Both teams to score: Yes (1.50)
    Tip
  • Sassuolo - Carrarese
    When: 19:30
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    In Serie B, league leaders Sassuolo host eleventh-placed Carrarese. The home team is close to promotion back to Serie A and does not want to drop points against a mid-table opponent. For Carrarese, it's primarily about presenting themselves respectably and not slipping down in the fight for a single-digit league position.

    Sassuolo
    Sassuolo dominates the league: 75 goals scored in 34 games is the best in the league. The team has won four of the last five matches and plays very confidently at home. Offensively, the team shows great joy in playing with fast wingers, high pressing, and efficient chance conversion. Defensively, they are not invulnerable, but thanks to their offensive strength, they are often able to equalize or lead comfortably. The atmosphere in the stadium is electrifying and additionally boosts the team.

    Carrarese
    Carrarese is having a mixed season. Placed 11th, they are in the league's no-man’s-land. Only 35 goals in 34 games show a lack of offensive punch. Although the team has recently remained unbeaten with two wins and three draws, they usually lack quality against top teams. Away, Carrarese often seems aimless, especially when defending deep. It will likely be difficult to keep up with Sassuolo’s high tempo and offensive dynamism.

    Injuries
    Sassuolo is missing Kristian Thorstvedt (midfield, Norway). Despite his absence, the team remains strong enough to dominate offensively. Carrarese can rely on their full squad.

    Head-to-head
    The first leg in September 2024 was won comfortably by Sassuolo away, 2-0. Further encounters date back a long time and are irrelevant for the current assessment. The clear win in the first meeting clearly shows the class difference between the two teams.

    Match Prediction
    Sassuolo enters this duel as the clear favorite and will dominate the game with home advantage and significantly better individual quality. Carrarese will be challenged defensively and will hardly be able to set their own accents. Everything suggests that Sassuolo will offensively ensure a clear outcome.

    My tip: Sassuolo to win (1.55)
    Tip
  • Spezia - Salernitana
    When: 15:00
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    Spezia is having a strong season in Serie B and currently sits in 3rd place on the table. At home, the team is particularly dangerous and wants to solidify its chances for direct promotion with another victory. Salernitana, on the other hand, lingers near the bottom of the table and is significantly weaker away from home. The favorite role is clearly assigned – everything speaks in favor of Spezia.

    Spezia
    The hosts are very solid defensively (only 27 goals conceded in 34 games) and especially at home allow hardly anything. Although they recently had three draws, they remained consistently hard to break down. The team plays structured, keeps the ball moving, and deliberately uses their few chances – that is often enough for narrow wins. Against weaker opponents like Salernitana, Spezia is expected to control the game.

    Salernitana
    The guests find themselves in the mediocre middle of the table and show enormous weaknesses, especially away. 44 goals conceded clearly speak for themselves, while creativity up front is lacking. Often a lot of ball possession is seen without effect – against pressing opponents like Spezia, this can quickly become their downfall. The statistics also show: the team rarely accomplishes anything on foreign ground.

    Injuries
    Both teams can largely field their best squads. Spezia is missing only Thorstvedt, which is noticeable in midfield but given the squad depth is unlikely to be decisive. Salernitana has no confirmed absences.

    Head-to-Head
    Spezia won the first leg away 2-0 – a clear signal. Previous encounters were also hard-fought, but mostly with advantages for Spezia. Especially at home, the team is traditionally strong against Salernitana.

    Match Prediction
    Spezia is tactically mature, defensively stable, and fighting for promotion. Salernitana neither has the form nor the defensive discipline to succeed in La Spezia. I expect a controlled home performance and no goal rush, but a clear victory.

    My tip: Spezia win (1.90)
    Tip
  • Pisa - Frosinone
    When: 15:00
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    In the race for direct promotion, Pisa hosts the mid-table club Frosinone. The home team is currently second and in excellent form. For Frosinone, it only concerns placement, as neither promotion nor relegation is a realistic option. Pisa will play for the win – anything else would be a surprise.

    Pisa
    The team is currently showing great strength. 20 wins from 34 games and a goal difference of 56:32 speak for themselves. Especially at home, Pisa often dominates with early pressure and a solid defense. The team has won four of their last five matches – a true promotion form. Their style combines ball control with quick counterattacks, making them very effective against weaker opponents like Frosinone.

    Frosinone
    Frosinone is having a dull season. 12th place, a negative goal difference, and only 35 goals in 34 matches clearly show their offensive problems. The team struggles away from home, especially against well-organized teams. In recent matches, there have been several draws – but against a motivated Pisa, that is unlikely to be enough.

    Injuries
    Pisa will miss Tomas Esteves. Frosinone is missing Simone Romagnoli. Neither absence significantly affects the respective team structure.

    Head-to-Head
    The first leg ended goalless, and before that, Pisa won clearly 3-0. Overall, recent encounters between the teams have been mixed, but currently Pisa is clearly the stronger side.

    Match Prediction
    Pisa plays at home, is in promotion form, and faces an opponent without a clear goal and with an inconsistent defense. I expect a controlled performance from the hosts and a well-deserved three points.

    My tip: Pisa win (1.93)
    Tip
  • Sampdoria - Cremonese
    When: 15:00
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    In Genoa, two teams with completely different goals face each other. Sampdoria is fighting to avoid relegation, while Cremonese is aiming for direct promotion. The hosts are in a precarious position, show little stability and score too rarely. The guests, on the other hand, are in top form and arrive with an unbeaten streak – they don’t want to show any weakness.

    Sampdoria
    The former Serie A giant is currently in a relegation spot and has scored only 35 goals in 34 games – too few to stay up. Particularly alarming is the defense with 47 goals conceded. In the last five games, the team collected only four points; their performances seemed sloppy and uncoordinated. Although the squad is complete, the current playing quality is hardly enough to assert themselves against organized opponents.

    Cremonese
    The team from Lombardy currently stands in 4th place and has been unbeaten for five matches (three wins, two draws). 57 goals in 34 games speak for an effective offense that also works well away from home. Although some players are missing – including Okereke (suspension) and goalkeeper Saro – the squad depth allows for sufficient alternatives. Tactically, Cremonese plays disciplined, with fast wingers and efficient play in the final third.

    Injuries
    Sampdoria has no significant absences.
    Cremonese must do without Okereke (suspension), Pickel (suspension), and Saro (injury) – noticeable but manageable absences.

    Head-to-head
    Cremonese won two of the last five games against Sampdoria and was successful away. Overall, the games are usually closely contested, but in the recent duels the northern Italians had clearly the better performances – especially in Genoa.

    Match prediction
    Sampdoria currently lacks defensive stability and offensive punch. Cremonese comes with a clear plan, better form, and more confidence. Despite some absences, the guests should at least take one point – given the current form of the hosts, an away win is not unlikely.

    My tip: Double Chance Cremonese (1.30)
    Tip
  • Palermo - Südtirol
    When: 15:00
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    Two teams, two very different missions: Palermo is fighting to return to Serie A, while Südtirol is trying to escape the relegation zone. Both need points – some for the playoffs, the others for league survival. In a duel that brings both excitement and potential mistakes, one thing is quite certain: it won’t be boring.

    Palermo
    Palermo is in 6th place, firmly in the playoff race but under pressure. The Rosaneri have scored 47 goals but have also conceded 38. In the last five games there have been three wins and two losses – not absolute consistency, but always dangerous offensively. At home, Palermo plays more aggressively. Much of the offense goes through the wings, while defensively coordination problems repeatedly become apparent. The defense leaves gaps, especially during the opponent’s quick counterattacks.

    Südtirol
    The guest from Südtirol is in 13th place, with only a small margin from the relegation zone. Particularly noticeable is the weak defense: 52 goals conceded in 34 games speak clearly. The team regularly manages to score (1.26 goals per game), but their defense falters heavily. In five games, there was only one win. Away, the team appears significantly more unstable, with the defense often overwhelmed.

    Injuries
    Palermo will field their best squad – no absences.
    Südtirol has to do without two important players: Tommaso Arrigoni (ankle injury) and Karim Zedadka (cruciate ligament rupture). Both are missing especially in the center, which is likely to negatively affect the gameplay.

    Head-to-Head
    No relevant recent direct encounters – therefore no impact on the assessment.

    Match Prediction
    Both teams have their strengths – Palermo in attack, Südtirol in determination. But both also have weaknesses – especially defensively. Palermo will play offensively at home, Südtirol will have to counter and create chances. Due to the shaky defenses on both sides and Palermo's offensive strength as well as the guests’ counter threat, a goal by both teams seems very realistic.

    My tip: Both teams to score: Yes (1.75)
    Tip
  • Rosenborg - Kristiansund
    When: 18:00
    Where: Norwegian Eliteserien

    Introduction
    At Lerkendal Stadium, Rosenborg welcomes the promoted team Kristiansund. On paper, everything is clear – the home team plays in a controlled and efficient manner, while Kristiansund regularly succumbs in spectacular goal fests. While Rosenborg aims to compete at the top, Kristiansund urgently needs stability. However, this duel looks rather one-sided.

    Rosenborg
    Rosenborg is on course. After four matches, they stand unbeaten in 5th place with three wins and one draw. Their defense is particularly impressive – only one goal conceded so far. Offensively, they play pragmatically: 5 goals in 4 matches show they don't need spectacle to win games. At home, they appear especially confident. Their strength lies in discipline and organization – they leave the opponent very little space and control the game without excessive risk.

    Kristiansund
    Kristiansund plays at a completely different level. Three defeats in five games with ten goals conceded speak volumes. The team shows courage in attack (7 goals) but reveals significant gaps in defense. Especially away, they are vulnerable – the midfield is often too open, and the defense poorly coordinated. Against structured teams like Rosenborg, they regularly get overrun. Previous matches against strong opponents have clearly shown this.

    Injuries
    Missing for Rosenborg:
    I. S. Thorvaldsson (unknown)
    Noah Sahsah (knee, return in September)
    Kristiansund must do without their regular goalkeeper, among others:
    Michael Lansing (knee, out long-term)
    Other absences: Kilen, Roenning, Rakneberg

    Head-to-head meetings
    The recent duels clearly favor Rosenborg. Most recently a 4-0 away win, previously multiple home wins with two or more goals advantage. The record against Kristiansund is clearly positive, especially in Trondheim.

    Match forecast
    Rosenborg shows defensive stability and efficiency in finishing. Kristiansund, however, defends chaotically and reveals too many gaps – especially against strong home teams. The goalkeeper’s injury only worsens the situation. Everything indicates that Rosenborg can control the game and win by at least two goals. History, form, squad quality – everything speaks for the home team.

    My tip: Over 2.5 goals (1.45)
    Tip
  • Tottenham – Bodo/Glimt
    When: 21:00
    Where: Europa League

    Introduction
    An extraordinary Europa League semi-final is ahead – Tottenham, at the bottom end of the Premier League, faces the surprise team from Norway: Bodo/Glimt. For the English side, it is the last chance to salvage a failed season. For the Norwegians, it could be the biggest moment in the club’s history.

    Tottenham
    The “Spurs” have clearly prioritized: the Europa League. Things are catastrophic in the Premier League – five defeats in the last six games. Signs of resignation in the league competition indicate that the full focus is on the international competition. Problematic is the likely absence of captain Heung-min Son, who is not expected to be fit after a foot injury. Striker Werner is also not registered, Bentancur and Drăgușin are also doubtful. This directly affects creativity and punch in attack. Although Tottenham has reached the semi-final in the Europa League, almost all games were close and rarely convincing.

    Bodo/Glimt
    What a run! The Norwegians have eliminated Lazio, are consistently playing well in league and cup, and approach with great confidence. Bodo/Glimt has already proven it can keep up with opponents from top leagues – not only fighting well but also tactically and technically. However, the central midfield is thinned out due to suspensions of Patrick Berg and Håkon Evjen. Without these two key players, it will be more difficult to maintain the balance between defense and offense. Nevertheless, Bodo/Glimt impresses with pace, high running effort, and strong set pieces – they lead the Europa League in goals scored from set pieces.

    Injuries
    At Tottenham, Son, Bentancur, and Drăgușin are doubtful; Werner is not registered.
    At Bodo/Glimt, Berg, Evjen, and Helmersson are missing due to suspensions; Blomberg is doubtful.

    Head-to-Head
    No direct comparison available – a true debut duel.

    Match Prediction
    Tottenham appears battered, Bodo/Glimt is euphoric. Son’s absence could be decisive, especially since the Spurs are not in top form anyway. Despite the weakening in central midfield, the Norwegians are expected to hold their own in London. Tottenham rarely wins by a wide margin, Bodo/Glimt rarely gets defeated heavily – even Lazio won narrowly in the first leg. My feeling is: The visitors will stay within reach and secure a manageable position with a close result for the return leg in Norway.

    My tip: Over 2.5 goals (1.48)
    Tip
  • Cittadella - Brescia
    When: 17:15
    Where: Italian Serie B

    Introduction
    In the relegation battle of Serie B, two direct rivals face each other: Cittadella and Brescia. Both teams are separated by only one point and are in acute danger of slipping down to Serie C. A classic “six-point game” where mistakes must be avoided at all costs. The conditions suggest a tight and rather defensive match.

    Cittadella
    Cittadella currently stands in 19th place, just one point behind Brescia. The form is alarming: no wins in the last five games. The offense is one of the weakest in the league – only 27 goals in 34 games tell a clear story. Defensively, they are also vulnerable with 49 goals conceded. At home, the team lacks the stability to secure advantages in the relegation fight. Their play is characterized by uncertainty and inefficient attacking.

    Brescia
    Brescia ranks 16th and has a significantly better offensive output than their opponent with 37 goals. Still, there is no consistency here either – recently three losses in five games. Brescia often plays more controlled, but is also error-prone defensively. Notably, their matches end more frequently with goals on both sides, indicating a more open style compared to Cittadella. Nevertheless, they lack structure and punch in many games.

    Injuries
    Both teams will field their best lineups, with no known absences or suspensions. This gives both coaches the opportunity to deploy their best personnel – a slight advantage especially in the relegation battle.

    Head to Head
    The last five encounters show everything is possible here: two wins for Cittadella, one draw, two victories for Brescia. The results also vary between low-scoring games (0:0, 1:0) and higher-scoring matches (3:2). No clear trend can be derived, fitting the general unpredictability of both teams.

    Match Forecast
    In a game where pressure is high on both sides, caution will prevail over risk. Cittadella has enormous problems offensively, Brescia is somewhat more threatening in front of goal but will likely not throw themselves recklessly into danger. The recent performances of both teams and the tension in the standings suggest a cautious playing style.

    My tip: Under 2.5 goals (1.68)
    Tip
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